Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 2.547470 2.717124 2.898078 3.106438 3.340986 3.598346 3.904173
2025-05-25 2.285796 2.512616 2.767414 3.078184 3.451721 3.892661 4.462684
2025-06-01 2.116830 2.372752 2.670239 3.047662 3.523061 4.115819 4.935063
2025-06-08 2.006380 2.284103 2.615937 3.050895 3.621128 4.367529 5.465386
2025-06-15 1.932067 2.229439 2.593476 3.084897 3.753525 4.670556 6.106606
2025-06-22 1.833743 2.136434 2.513491 3.033576 3.761172 4.795718 6.499601
2025-06-29 1.746836 2.051607 2.436863 2.978127 3.753919 4.893056 6.858727
2025-07-06 1.662795 1.965415 2.352460 2.904397 3.711397 4.928803 7.116131
2025-07-13 1.630378 1.943986 2.351597 2.945048 3.837585 5.237858 7.911441
2025-07-20 1.605922 1.931150 2.360586 2.998855 3.986705 5.601299 8.896001
2025-07-27 1.583399 1.919285 2.369452 3.051908 4.138171 5.988364 10.038774
2025-08-03 1.539581 1.876312 2.332242 3.032979 4.170601 6.166904 10.775520
2025-08-10 1.497097 1.834132 2.295023 3.012994 4.201762 6.352044 11.602875
2025-08-17 1.455354 1.791345 2.254905 2.985875 4.218168 6.511249 12.424905
2025-08-24 1.416014 1.750338 2.215347 2.956855 4.228060 6.658044 13.271443
2025-08-31 1.388423 1.724729 2.196940 2.959929 4.294421 6.930421 14.613537
2025-09-07 1.370604 1.712164 2.196950 2.992254 4.416239 7.341877 16.643347
2025-09-14 1.332330 1.668978 2.149359 2.943460 4.382295 7.399319 17.455142
2025-09-21 1.295100 1.626210 2.100874 2.890710 4.336724 7.423901 18.166516
2025-09-28 1.255241 1.578598 2.043536 2.820519 4.252705 7.347082 18.434917
2025-10-05 1.244841 1.573427 2.050538 2.859226 4.383966 7.814350 21.455042
2025-10-12 1.237917 1.572980 2.064555 2.910433 4.544910 8.392263 25.750104
2025-10-19 1.230977 1.572184 2.077825 2.960892 4.709556 9.022090 31.476607